Survivor 49 Premiere "Act One of a Horror Film" Gameplay Analysis

 "Not everybody here's gonna make it to graduation."

-Sophi Balerdi

Survivor is back, baby!  And what's interesting this time is that we know two of these people are going to be on season 50 as well, so not only am I trying to guess who the winner is, but which two are returning!  The premiere was fun, but I have to admit that I don't think I would get along with most of the people on the island.  It looks like we have a lot of weirdos this season, but that can make for interesting TV and gameplay, but it does make me glad I'm not on this season.  Let's take a look at who played well and who sucked!

Who Played Well:

We'll start over on Hina, who we didn't see much of, but we did get to see Steven forming bonds with Matt, Jason, and MC.  It's a start for all of them.  I'm worried that Steven's paranoia may get to him sooner or later, but for now, all of them had a good enough start.

Over on Kele, Sophi B had a great episode.  She isn't into astrology, but was open to hearing about it from Jeremiah.  That's a particular subject that I would struggle to even pretend to be interested in, so I have to give lots of props to Sophi for that.  She also got into an alliance with Jake and Alex and when she realized she was 3rd in that trio, she got a new number one in Jeremiah.  Plus she ended up being part of a unanimous vote at her first Tribal Council.  It was a great night for her and I'm making her my winner pick.

Next we have Jeremiah, who got into the majority 4 and has a number one ally in Sophi B, however, he did give away too much information at Tribal Council and made Nicole more suspicious.  Had she had an Idol, that could have blown the whole game up, but I'll still put him as a net positive.

Alex had a rough start by volunteering to go compete on the Reward Duel alone.  I don't think anyone should ever volunteer for that on day one.  That's invaluable social opportunities being wasted.  If everyone was smart, no one would volunteer and they would draw sticks or rocks to decide.  And not only did he volunteer, but he lost.  However, he made up for his rough start by getting into a majority alliance and even having something of a side alliance with Annie.  It's close, but I'll give him a net positive.

Over on Uli, we saw Jawan, Nate, Sage, Savannah, and Shannon all making various inroads and connections with the others.  It remains to be seen where the lines will break, but all of them had a good start here.  Nate gets extra points for leading his tribe to victory on the final stretch of the Immunity Challenge.   Jawan had one questionable moment where he got frustrated while making fire, which Savannah described as a red flag and made her want to work with him less.  Unless there was more going on here that we didn't see, I think she's overreacting a bit, so I'm still keeping Jawan in the net positive.

Rizo also made the mistake of volunteering to take on the Reward Duel, but at least he won and he seems to be in a fine position now.

Who Sucked:

Out of the remaining contestants, I only have two people in this section.  Jake has made some very questionable decisions so far.  He's in the majority, which is good, but he made such an obvious duo with Alex that he made Sophi B feel less secure.  He also told Sophi B and Alex about his pregnant wife at home.  Jeremy Collins spent all of Cambodia telling us why that's a bad idea and it could make people not want to take Jake to the end.  Plus I don't get why he stole Nicole's shoe and plans to keep doing it.  I don't see the benefit and if he gets caught, it could hurt his game.

Finally, we have Annie, who is on the bossy side and likes to go off on her own, which made everyone else wary of her.  Plus she was one of the main reasons they lost the Immunity Challenge.  She did make a side alliance with Alex, which may have saved her, but she also did some damage to the alliance by scheming with Sophi B.

We really didn't get enough from Kristina or Sophie S for me to have an opinion either way.

As for Nicole, I'm of the belief that a standard vote in Survivor should be to vote out the weakest person who isn't in your alliance, and it seems like that was the case here.  She just didn't make enough inroads to make up for her poor challenge performance.

Verdict:

Best Player of the Episode goes to Sophi Balerdi for engaging with Jeremiah about astrology, making an alliance, making a back-up alliance, and being part of a unanimous vote.

Worst Player of the Episode goes to Annie Davis for being bossy, going off on her own, and not doing well at the Immunity Challenge.

I'm predicting lots of insanity this season with this cast of kooky characters.  Here's hoping I'm right!